Emerging Challenges and Opportunities in Infectious Disease Epidemiology.

Much of the intellectual tradition of modern epidemiology stems from efforts to understand and combat chronic diseases persisting through the 20th century epidemiologic transition of countries such as the United States and United Kingdom. After decades of relative obscurity, infectious disease epidemiology has undergone an intellectual rebirth in recent years amid increasing recognition of the threat posed by both new and familiar pathogens. Here, we review the emerging coalescence of infectious disease epidemiology around a core set of study designs and statistical methods bearing little resemblance to the chronic disease epidemiology toolkit. We offer our outlook on challenges and opportunities facing the field, including the integration of novel molecular and digital information sources into disease surveillance, the assimilation of such data into models of pathogen spread, and the increasing contribution of models to public health practice. We next consider emerging paradigms in causal inference for infectious diseases, ranging from approaches to evaluating vaccines and antimicrobial therapies to the task of ascribing clinical syndromes to etiologic microorganisms, an age-old problem transformed by our increasing ability to characterize human-associated microbiota. These areas represent an increasingly important component of epidemiology training programs for future generations of researchers and practitioners

Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence

Additional file 6: Annex 1. Right side: Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) functions of the residuals from ARIMA model (1, 0, 1) × (1, 0, 1)12 on log-transformed, differenced data. Left side: ACF and PACF of the residuals from ARIMA model (4, 0, 1) × (1, 0, 1)12 on log-transformed, differenced data

Forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil.

IntroductionCutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinely-gathered weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions.Methodology/principal findingsWe fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural region of Bahía, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation.SignificanceThese outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets

Pneumococcal Phenotype and Interaction with Nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae as Determinants of Otitis Media Progression

All-cause otitis media (OM) incidence has declined in numerous settings following introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) despite increases in carriage of nonvaccine pneumococcal serotypes escaping immune pressure. To understand the basis for the declining incidence, we assessed the intrinsic capacity of pneumococcal serotypes to cause OM independently and in polymicrobial infections involving nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) using samples obtained from middle ear fluid and nasopharyngeal cultures before PCV7/13 rollout. Data included samples from OM episodes (11,811) submitted for cultures during a 10-year prospective study in southern Israel and nasopharyngeal samples (1,588) from unvaccinated asymptomatic children in the same population. We compared data representing pneumococcal serotype diversity across carriage and disease isolates with and without NTHi coisolation. We also measured associations between the pneumococcal phenotype and the rate of progression from colonization to OM in the presence and absence of NTHi. Whereas pneumococcal serotype diversity was lower in single-species OM than in single-species colonization, levels of serotype diversity did not differ significantly between colonization and OM in mixed-species episodes. Serotypes differed roughly 100-fold in progression rates, and those differences were attenuated in polymicrobial episodes. Vaccine serotype pneumococci had higher rates of progression than nonvaccine serotypes. While serotype invasiveness was a weak predictor of the OM progression rate, efficient capsular metabolic properties-traditionally thought to serve as an advantage in colonization-predicted an enhanced rate of progression to complex OM. The lower capacity of nonvaccine serotypes to cause OM may partially account for reductions in all-cause OM incidence despite serotype replacement in carriage following rollout of PCVs

Modelling the global burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis avertable by a post-exposure vaccine.

There have been notable advances in the development of vaccines against active tuberculosis (TB) disease for adults and adolescents. Using mathematical models, we seek to estimate the potential impact of a post-exposure TB vaccine, having 50% efficacy in reducing active disease, on global rifampicin-resistant (RR-) TB burden. In 30 countries that together accounted for 90% of global RR-TB incidence in 2018, a future TB vaccine could avert 10% (95% credible interval: 9.7-11%) of RR-TB cases and 7.3% (6.6-8.1%) of deaths over 2020-2035, with India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the Russian Federation having the greatest contribution. This impact would increase to 14% (12-16%) and 31% (29-33%) respectively, when combined with improvements in RR-TB diagnosis and treatment relative to a scenario of no vaccine and no such improvements. A future TB vaccine could have important implications for the global control of RR-TB, especially if implemented alongside enhancements in management of drug resistance

Combining genomics and epidemiology to track mumps virus transmission in the United States.

Unusually large outbreaks of mumps across the United States in 2016 and 2017 raised questions about the extent of mumps circulation and the relationship between these and prior outbreaks. We paired epidemiological data from public health investigations with analysis of mumps virus whole genome sequences from 201 infected individuals, focusing on Massachusetts university communities. Our analysis suggests continuous, undetected circulation of mumps locally and nationally, including multiple independent introductions into Massachusetts and into individual communities. Despite the presence of these multiple mumps virus lineages, the genomic data show that one lineage has dominated in the US since at least 2006. Widespread transmission was surprising given high vaccination rates, but we found no genetic evidence that variants arising during this outbreak contributed to vaccine escape. Viral genomic data allowed us to reconstruct mumps transmission links not evident from epidemiological data or standard single-gene surveillance efforts and also revealed connections between apparently unrelated mumps outbreaks

Risk Factors Associated With SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Farmworkers in Monterey County, California.

Importance: Essential workers in agriculture and food production have been severely affected by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: To identify risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection among farmworkers in California. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study invited farmworkers in California's Salinas Valley (Monterey County) receiving transcription-mediated amplification (TMA) tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection at federally qualified community clinics and community sites to participate. Individuals were eligible if they were not pregnant, were 18 years or older, had conducted farmwork since the pandemic started, and were proficient in English or Spanish. Survey data were collected and SARS-CoV-2 tests were conducted among participants from July 16 to November 30, 2020. Exposures: Sociodemographic, household, community, and workplace characteristics. Main Outcomes and Measures: TMA- and immunoglobulin G (IgG)-positive SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results: A total of 1107 farmworkers (581 [52.5%] women; mean [SD] age, 39.7 [12.6] years) were included in these analyses. Most participants were born in Mexico (922 [83.3%]), were married or living with a partner (697 [63.0%]), and worked in the fields (825 [74.5%]). Overall, 118 of 911 (13.0%) had a positive result on their TMA test for SARS-CoV-2 infection, whereas 201 of 1058 (19.0%) had antibody evidence of infection. In multivariable analyses accounting for recruitment venue and enrollment period, the incidence of TMA-positive SARS-CoV-2 infection was higher among those with lower than primary school-level education (adjusted relative risk [aRR], 1.32; 95% CI, 0.99-1.76; non-statistically significant finding), who spoke an Indigenous language at home (aRR, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.97-1.73; non-statistically significant finding), who worked in the fields (aRR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.03-2.50), and who were exposed to a known or suspected COVID-19 case at home (aRR, 2.98; 95% CI, 2.06-4.32) or in the workplace (aRR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.18-2.14). Positive results on IgG tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection were more common among those who lived in crowded housing (aRR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.98-1.53; non-statistically significant finding), with children aged 5 years or younger (aRR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.11-1.76), with unrelated roommates (aRR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.19-1.64), and with an individual with known or suspected COVID-19 (aRR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.13-2.24). The risk of IgG positivity was also higher among those with body mass index of 30 or greater (aRR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.01-2.70) or diabetes (aRR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.98-1.75; non-statistically significant finding). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of farmworkers in California, both residential and workplace exposures were associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Urgent distribution of COVID-19 vaccines and intervention on modifiable risk factors are warranted given this population's increased risk of infection and the essential nature of their work

Prevalence and Clinical Profile of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection among Farmworkers, California, USA, June-November 2020.

During the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, farmworkers in the United States are considered essential personnel and continue in-person work. We conducted prospective surveillance for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and antibody prevalence among farmworkers in Salinas Valley, California, during June 15-November 30, 2020. We observed 22.1% (1,514/6,864) positivity for SARS-CoV-2 infection among farmworkers compared with 17.2% (1,255/7,305) among other adults from the same communities (risk ratio 1.29, 95% CI 1.20-1.37). In a nested study enrolling 1,115 farmworkers, prevalence of current infection was 27.7% among farmworkers reporting >1 COVID-19 symptom and 7.2% among farmworkers without symptoms (adjusted odds ratio 4.16, 95% CI 2.85-6.06). Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies increased from 10.5% (95% CI 6.0%-18.4%) during July 16-August 31 to 21.2% (95% CI 16.6%-27.4%) during November 1-30. High SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence among farmworkers underscores the need for vaccination and other preventive interventions

Relative Undernourishment and Food Insecurity Associations with Plasmodium falciparum Among Batwa Pygmies in Uganda: Evidence from a Cross-Sectional Survey

Although malnutrition and malaria co-occur among individuals and populations globally, effects of nutritional status on risk for parasitemia and clinical illness remain poorly understood. We investigated associations between Plasmodium falciparum infection, nutrition, and food security in a cross-sectional survey of 365 Batwa pygmies in Kanungu District, Uganda in January of 2013. We identified 4.1% parasite prevalence among individuals over 5 years old. Severe food insecurity was associated with increased risk for positive rapid immunochromatographic test outcome (adjusted relative risk [ARR] = 13.09; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 2.23–76.79). High age/sex-adjusted mid-upper arm circumference was associated with decreased risk for positive test among individuals who were not severely food-insecure (ARR = 0.37; 95% CI = 0.19–0.69). Within Batwa pygmy communities, where malnutrition and food insecurity are common, individuals who are particularly undernourished or severely food-insecure may have elevated risk for P. falciparum parasitemia. This finding may motivate integrated control of malaria and malnutrition in low-transmission settings